Polls Open in the Netherlands as Polls Point to Possible Repeat Victory for Firebrand Leader Geert Wilders

The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.