Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
